Here are my top ten investment books in no particular order although I will start with my favourite.
1. Contrarian Investing: Anthony Gallea & William Patalon. My favourite investment book. Well written and full of excellent advice. Follow the advice in this book and your portfolio will be the better for it.
2. The Intelligent Investor: Banjamin Graham. Written by the acknowledged master of value investing. A classic on value investing. A must have for every investor.
3. The New Money Masters: John Train. A guide to the strategies of Soros, Lynch, Rogers, Neff etc. An excellent treatise on great investors.
4. A Random Walk Down Wall Street: Burton Malkeil. The bestselling book on investing by a Princeton University professor of economics. The book challenged Wall Street and conventional wisdom.
5. One Up on Wall Street: Peter Lynch. From one of the acknowledged masters on Wall Street. Lynch shows us how to beat the pros.
6. Nice Girls Don’t Get Rich: Lois Frankel, PhD. Financial advice for women. Very useful for women of all ages. I enjoyed this quote: “ From birth to 18, a girl needs good parents. From 18 to 35 she needs good looks. From 35 to 55 she needs a good personality. From 55 onwards she needs cash.” Sophie Tucker
7. Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes: Gary Belsky & Thomas Gilovich. This book introduced me to behavioral economics. A fascinating book on how we spend, invest, save, borrow and waste money. A must read if you want to understand the psychological causes of irrational behaviour towards money.
8. Common Stock & Uncommon Profits: Philip Fisher. Full of great investment wisdom. Even Warren Buffet recommends it.
9. Contrarian Investment Strategies: David Dreman. Another excellent book on contrarian investing.
10. Lifetime Guide to Money: Wall Street Journal. An invaluable guide to managing your finances.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Lack of Funding as an Obstacle to Solving the Power Crises
As I am writing this I am hot, frustrated and angry. I am using a rechargeable lamp (recharged using my generating set) because I have not had power from PHCN for the past 24 hours. Nothing new.
I am frustrated because although the problems of electric power generation in Nigeria are complex, they can be solved. I am angry because the present government is spending too much time on the past rather than concentrating on doing something now to address the problem. What the government needs to do is to tackle the generation, transmission and distribution problem in a methodical fashion.
Take as an example the issue of inadequate generation. Recently we were told that PHCN is currently generating less than 2,000 MW. Quite pathetic one might add. What if I tell you we can double this in the next 3 years by spending between $3 and $4 billion dollars? Believe me it is possible. This is how.
The previous Obasanjo administration mandated Oil Majors who are currently in Joint Venture (JV) partnerships with NNPC to build Independent Power Plants (IPP). The projects will include High Voltage transmission lines, gas i nfrastructure and the gas where required. The Oil Majors will contribute between 40-45% of the cost of the project (this is based on their equity in the JV) while NNPC will contribute between 55% and 60%. There are several benefits of this arrangement:
1. The government will only contribute 55% - 60% cash during the construction of the project (typically 3- 4 years) instead of 100%. Therefore the impact on the cashflow of government is minimized. The JV partners will recover their contribution over a couple of years after the project has become operational.
2. PHCN benefits from the project management experience of the Oil Majors. The IPP’s will surely be delivered by the Oil Majors as they have their reputations to protect. The current scandals surrounding the NIPP projects will certainly not be experienced in the IPP projects. For example Agip have since delivered their IPP project. Without the Agip IPP our current crises could have been even worse.
3. The Oil Majors will ensure gas supply to the IIP since they are directly involved in gas production.
Unfortunately for Nigerians only Agip has been able to deliver on the IPP due to lack of funding from NNPC. While the Oil Majors are willing and able to fund their share of the project, NNPC has failed in the last two years to provide funding for the projects. For one reason or the other, Shell, C hevron, Elf and ExxonMobil have not received the funds from NNPC needed to deliver the p rojects. Shell has made significant progress without f unds from NNPC. However, for how long do we expect Shell to carry our burden? NNPC is not really to blame as the government refused to appropriate NNPC the funds it needs.
The real question t hen is how much money is required to deliver the projects? Between Shell, Elf, Chevron and ExxonMobil the amount that is required from the government is between $3.5 to $4 billion dollars. Let me put this amount in context. The $4 billion is about 37 days of oil production if we assume oil price of $90 and 2.2 million barrels a day production and government take of 55% of the production. Please note that this is a very conservative estimate. Can you imagine! All we need to fund the four IPP’s is to commit 37 days production spread over 3 years (approximately 2 weeks production per year!).
Although what I have proposed is rather simplistic, it is equally not that complex. Unfortunately for Nigerians the government of Yar’Adua and NNPC just don’t get it. The whole country cant move forward because of the power situation. Meanwhile oil price is at record highs and NNPC is starved of funds to execute national priority projects.
For the past few months NNPC has been discussing with Oil Majors on how to fund its projects (including IPP’s). With oil price above $100 this is totally unnecessary. This is the time to use the oil money to invest in infrastructure and the oil industry itself. This is not the time to engage in long discussions with Oil Majors on funding. Unfortunately some advisors have convinced the current president that this is the way to go.
Yar’Adua told us during his campaign that power is a priority. However, his actions contradict this. The 2008 budget did not provide the required amount to execute the IPP projects or any major power project. When something is a priority the logical thing to do is to allocate funds to it.
So we continue to live in darkness. Until such a time when someone does the simple calculation and realizes that all we need is 37 days of production to add 2,000 MW to the national grid. While 2,000 MW might look small,it will be a huge leap as it will double our current generation. And perhaps our nights will be brighter and cooler.
I am frustrated because although the problems of electric power generation in Nigeria are complex, they can be solved. I am angry because the present government is spending too much time on the past rather than concentrating on doing something now to address the problem. What the government needs to do is to tackle the generation, transmission and distribution problem in a methodical fashion.
Take as an example the issue of inadequate generation. Recently we were told that PHCN is currently generating less than 2,000 MW. Quite pathetic one might add. What if I tell you we can double this in the next 3 years by spending between $3 and $4 billion dollars? Believe me it is possible. This is how.
The previous Obasanjo administration mandated Oil Majors who are currently in Joint Venture (JV) partnerships with NNPC to build Independent Power Plants (IPP). The projects will include High Voltage transmission lines, gas i nfrastructure and the gas where required. The Oil Majors will contribute between 40-45% of the cost of the project (this is based on their equity in the JV) while NNPC will contribute between 55% and 60%. There are several benefits of this arrangement:
1. The government will only contribute 55% - 60% cash during the construction of the project (typically 3- 4 years) instead of 100%. Therefore the impact on the cashflow of government is minimized. The JV partners will recover their contribution over a couple of years after the project has become operational.
2. PHCN benefits from the project management experience of the Oil Majors. The IPP’s will surely be delivered by the Oil Majors as they have their reputations to protect. The current scandals surrounding the NIPP projects will certainly not be experienced in the IPP projects. For example Agip have since delivered their IPP project. Without the Agip IPP our current crises could have been even worse.
3. The Oil Majors will ensure gas supply to the IIP since they are directly involved in gas production.
Unfortunately for Nigerians only Agip has been able to deliver on the IPP due to lack of funding from NNPC. While the Oil Majors are willing and able to fund their share of the project, NNPC has failed in the last two years to provide funding for the projects. For one reason or the other, Shell, C hevron, Elf and ExxonMobil have not received the funds from NNPC needed to deliver the p rojects. Shell has made significant progress without f unds from NNPC. However, for how long do we expect Shell to carry our burden? NNPC is not really to blame as the government refused to appropriate NNPC the funds it needs.
The real question t hen is how much money is required to deliver the projects? Between Shell, Elf, Chevron and ExxonMobil the amount that is required from the government is between $3.5 to $4 billion dollars. Let me put this amount in context. The $4 billion is about 37 days of oil production if we assume oil price of $90 and 2.2 million barrels a day production and government take of 55% of the production. Please note that this is a very conservative estimate. Can you imagine! All we need to fund the four IPP’s is to commit 37 days production spread over 3 years (approximately 2 weeks production per year!).
Although what I have proposed is rather simplistic, it is equally not that complex. Unfortunately for Nigerians the government of Yar’Adua and NNPC just don’t get it. The whole country cant move forward because of the power situation. Meanwhile oil price is at record highs and NNPC is starved of funds to execute national priority projects.
For the past few months NNPC has been discussing with Oil Majors on how to fund its projects (including IPP’s). With oil price above $100 this is totally unnecessary. This is the time to use the oil money to invest in infrastructure and the oil industry itself. This is not the time to engage in long discussions with Oil Majors on funding. Unfortunately some advisors have convinced the current president that this is the way to go.
Yar’Adua told us during his campaign that power is a priority. However, his actions contradict this. The 2008 budget did not provide the required amount to execute the IPP projects or any major power project. When something is a priority the logical thing to do is to allocate funds to it.
So we continue to live in darkness. Until such a time when someone does the simple calculation and realizes that all we need is 37 days of production to add 2,000 MW to the national grid. While 2,000 MW might look small,it will be a huge leap as it will double our current generation. And perhaps our nights will be brighter and cooler.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
High Expectations Among Investing Public
In the last two years the Nigerian stock exchange has attracted unprecedented interest. This was largely as a result of the banking industry capital raising exercise that saw several banks approach the market for fresh funds. The banks spent millions in advertisement which led to increased awareness among the public of the benefits of investing in the market.
The market posted a gain of 74.7% in 2007. However, it appears such a gain will not be repeated in 2008. At the end of the first quarter of 2007, the NSE All Share Index gained 31% compared to 8.7% at the end of the first quarter of 2008.
Already there is a talk of a crash. Whether there will be a crash or not is difficult to call as this depends on so many factors. Although a correction, not a crash is a possibility as most stocks are currently overvalued.
On the other hand, we might see a modest gain during the year of between 15-20%. Unfortunately, a 20% growth might not satisfy most investors as they have been spoilt by the spectacular growth in 2007. These investors have ignored the performance of the market in the last couple of years in managing their expectations.
2004 – 18.5%
2005 – 1%
2006 – 37.8%
2007 – 74.7%
The growth in 2007 is clearly an exception and cannot be repeated year in year out. Investors will do themselves a favour by lowering their expectations to a more modest 20% annual gain. Anything extra should be seen as a bonus.
The market posted a gain of 74.7% in 2007. However, it appears such a gain will not be repeated in 2008. At the end of the first quarter of 2007, the NSE All Share Index gained 31% compared to 8.7% at the end of the first quarter of 2008.
Already there is a talk of a crash. Whether there will be a crash or not is difficult to call as this depends on so many factors. Although a correction, not a crash is a possibility as most stocks are currently overvalued.
On the other hand, we might see a modest gain during the year of between 15-20%. Unfortunately, a 20% growth might not satisfy most investors as they have been spoilt by the spectacular growth in 2007. These investors have ignored the performance of the market in the last couple of years in managing their expectations.
2004 – 18.5%
2005 – 1%
2006 – 37.8%
2007 – 74.7%
The growth in 2007 is clearly an exception and cannot be repeated year in year out. Investors will do themselves a favour by lowering their expectations to a more modest 20% annual gain. Anything extra should be seen as a bonus.
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